One size doesn't fit all: methodological reflections in conducting community-based behavioural science research to tailor COVID-19 vaccination initiatives for public health priority populations.

BACKGROUND: Promoting the uptake of vaccination for infectious diseases such as COVID-19 remains a global challenge, necessitating collaborative efforts between public health units (PHUs) and communities. Applied behavioural science can play a crucial role in supporting PHUs' response by providing insights into human behaviour and informing tailored strategies to enhance vaccination uptake. Community engagement can help broaden the reach of behavioural science research by involving a more diverse range of populations and ensuring that strategies better represent the needs of specific communities. We developed and applied an approach to conducting community-based behavioural science research with ethnically and socioeconomically diverse populations to guide PHUs in tailoring their strategies to promote COVID-19 vaccination. This paper presents the community engagement methodology and the lessons learned in applying the methodology. METHODS: The community engagement methodology was developed based on integrated knowledge translation (iKT) and community-based participatory research (CBPR) principles. The study involved collaboration with PHUs and local communities in Ontario, Canada to identify priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination, understand factors influencing vaccine uptake and co-design strategies tailored to each community to promote vaccination. Community engagement was conducted across three large urban regions with individuals from Eastern European communities, African, Black, and Caribbean communities and low socioeconomic neighbourhoods. RESULTS: We developed and applied a seven-step methodology for conducting community-based behavioural science research: (1) aligning goals with system-level partners; (2) engaging with PHUs to understand priorities; (3) understanding community strengths and dynamics; (4) building relationships with each community; (5) establishing partnerships (community advisory groups); (6) involving community members in the research process; and (7) feeding back and interpreting research findings. Research partnerships were successfully established with members of prioritized communities, enabling recruitment of participants for theory-informed behavioural science interviews, interpretation of findings, and co-design of targeted recommendations for each PHU to improve COVID-19 vaccination uptake. Lessons learned include the importance of cultural sensitivity and awareness of sociopolitical context in tailoring community engagement, being agile to address the diverse and evolving priorities of PHUs, and building trust to achieve effective community engagement. CONCLUSION: Effective community engagement in behavioural science research can lead to more inclusive and representative research. The community engagement approach developed and applied in this study acknowledges the diversity of communities, recognizes the central role of PHUs, and can help in addressing complex public health challenges.

Trade-offs of different poliovirus vaccine options for outbreak response in the United States and other countries that only use inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization.

Delays in achieving polio eradication have led to ongoing risks of poliovirus importations that may cause outbreaks in polio-free countries. Because of the low, but non-zero risk of paralysis with oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs), countries that achieve and maintain high national routine immunization coverage have increasingly shifted to exclusive use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) for all preventive immunizations. However, immunization coverage within countries varies, with under-vaccinated subpopulations potentially able to sustain transmission of imported polioviruses and experience local outbreaks. Due to its cost, ease-of-use, and ability to induce mucosal immunity, using OPV as an outbreak control measure offers a more cost-effective option in countries in which OPV remains in use. However, recent polio outbreaks in IPV-only countries raise questions about whether and when IPV use for outbreak response may fail to stop poliovirus transmission and what consequences may follow from using OPV for outbreak response in these countries. We systematically reviewed the literature to identify modeling studies that explored the use of IPV for outbreak response in IPV-only countries. In addition, applying a model of the 2022 type 2 poliovirus outbreak in New York, we characterized the implications of using different OPV formulations for outbreak response instead of IPV. We also explored the hypothetical scenario of the same outbreak except for type 1 poliovirus instead of type 2. We find that using IPV for outbreak response will likely only stop outbreaks for polioviruses of relatively low transmission potential in countries with very high overall immunization coverage, seasonal transmission dynamics, and only if IPV immunization interventions reach some unvaccinated individuals. Using OPV for outbreak response in IPV-only countries poses substantial risks and challenges that require careful consideration, but may represent an option to consider for some outbreaks in some populations depending on the properties of the available vaccines and coverage attainable.

Disproportionate Rates of COVID-19 Among Black Canadian Communities: Lessons from a Cross-Sectional Study in the First Year of the Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Racialized communities, including Black Canadians, have disproportionately higher COVID-19 cases. We examined the extent to which SARS-CoV-2 infection has affected the Black Canadian community and the factors associated with the infection. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey in an area of Ontario (northwest Toronto/Peel Region) with a high proportion of Black residents along with 2 areas that have lower proportions of Black residents (Oakville and London, Ontario). SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies were determined using the EUROIMMUN assay. The study was conducted between August 15, 2020, and December 15, 2020. RESULTS: Among 387 evaluable subjects, the majority, 273 (70.5%), were enrolled from northwest Toronto and adjoining suburban areas of Peel, Ontario. The seropositivity values for Oakville and London were comparable (3.3% (2/60; 95% CI 0.4-11.5) and 3.9% (2/51; 95% CI 0.5-13.5), respectively). Relative to these areas, the seropositivity was higher for the northwest Toronto/Peel area at 12.1% (33/273), relative risk (RR) 3.35 (1.22-9.25). Persons 19 years of age or less had the highest seropositivity (10/50; 20.0%, 95% CI 10.3-33.7%), RR 2.27 (1.23-3.59). There was a trend for an interaction effect between race and location of residence as this relates to the relative risk of seropositivity. INTERPRETATION: During the early phases of the pandemic, the seropositivity within a COVID-19 high-prevalence zone was threefold greater than lower prevalence areas of Ontario. Black individuals were among those with the highest seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2.

Modeling undetected poliovirus circulation following the 2022 outbreak in the United States.

BACKGROUND: New York State (NYS) reported a polio case (June 2022) and outbreak of imported type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) (last positive wastewater detection in February 2023), for which uncertainty remains about potential ongoing undetected transmission. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Extending a prior deterministic model, we apply an established stochastic modeling approach to characterize the confidence about no circulation (CNC) of cVDPV2 as a function of time since the last detected signal of transmission (i.e. poliovirus positive acute flaccid myelitis case or wastewater sample). RESULTS: With the surveillance coverage for the NYS population majority and its focus on outbreak counties, modeling suggests a high CNC (95%) within 3-10 months of the last positive surveillance signal, depending on surveillance sensitivity and population mixing patterns. Uncertainty about surveillance sensitivity implies longer durations required to achieve higher CNC. CONCLUSIONS: In populations that maintain high overall immunization coverage with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), rare polio cases may occur in un(der)-vaccinated individuals. Modeling demonstrates the unlikeliness of type 2 outbreaks reestablishing endemic transmission or resulting in large absolute numbers of paralytic cases. Achieving and maintaining high immunization coverage with IPV remains the most effective measure to prevent outbreaks and shorten the duration of imported poliovirus transmission.

Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences.

Due to the very low, but nonzero, paralysis risks associated with the use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), eradicating poliomyelitis requires ending all OPV use globally. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated cessation of Sabin type 2 OPV (OPV2 cessation) in 2016, except for emergency outbreak response. However, as of early 2023, plans for cessation of bivalent OPV (bOPV, containing types 1 and 3 OPV) remain undefined, and OPV2 use for outbreak response continues due to ongoing transmission of type 2 polioviruses and reported type 2 cases. Recent development and use of a genetically stabilized novel type 2 OPV (nOPV2) leads to additional potential vaccine options and increasing complexity in strategies for the polio endgame. Prior applications of integrated global risk, economic, and poliovirus transmission modeling consistent with GPEI strategic plans that preceded OPV2 cessation explored OPV cessation dynamics and the evaluation of options to support globally coordinated risk management efforts. The 2022-2026 GPEI strategic plan highlighted the need for early bOPV cessation planning. We review the published modeling and explore bOPV cessation immunization options as of 2022, assuming that the GPEI partners will not support restart of the use of any OPV type in routine immunization after a globally coordinated cessation of such use. We model the potential consequences of globally coordinating bOPV cessation in 2027, as anticipated in the 2022-2026 GPEI strategic plan. We do not find any options for bOPV cessation likely to succeed without a strategy of bOPV intensification to increase population immunity prior to cessation.

Worst-case scenarios: Modeling uncontrolled type 2 polio transmission.

In May 2016, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated the cessation of all use of type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2), except for emergency outbreak response. Since then, paralytic polio cases caused by type 2 vaccine-derived polioviruses now exceed 3,000 cases reported by 39 countries. In 2022 (as of April 25, 2023), 20 countries reported detection of cases and nine other countries reported environmental surveillance detection, but no reported cases. Recent development of a genetically modified novel type 2 OPV (nOPV2) may help curb the generation of neurovirulent vaccine-derived strains; its use since 2021 under Emergency Use Listing is limited to outbreak response activities. Prior modeling studies showed that the expected trajectory for global type 2 viruses does not appear headed toward eradication, even with the best possible properties of nOPV2 assuming current outbreak response performance. Continued persistence of type 2 poliovirus transmission exposes the world to the risks of potentially high-consequence events such as the importation of virus into high-transmission areas of India or Bangladesh. Building on prior polio endgame modeling and assuming current national and GPEI outbreak response performance, we show no probability of successfully eradicating type 2 polioviruses in the near term regardless of vaccine choice. We also demonstrate the possible worst-case scenarios could result in rapid expansion of paralytic cases and preclude the goal of permanently ending all cases of poliomyelitis in the foreseeable future. Avoiding such catastrophic scenarios will depend on the development of strategies that raise population immunity to type 2 polioviruses.

ANESTHESIA OF ZOO-MANAGED AFRICAN PAINTED DOGS (LYCAON PICTUS) USING A DEXMEDETOMIDINE-KETAMINEBUTORPHANOL-MIDAZOLAM COMBINATION.

Zoo-managed adult African painted dogs (Lycaon pictus; n = 17) were anesthetized with mean dosages of dexmedetomidine 5 µg/kg, ketamine 1.93 mg/kg, butorphanol 0.2 mg/kg, and midazolam 0.15 mg/kg IM. Times to induction milestones (mean ± SD or median [range]) were initial effects at 2 min (1-4 min), recumbency at 3.2 ± 1.1 min, and intubation at 11.6 ± 1.3 min. Two dogs required isoflurane supplementation for intubation. Anesthesia was antagonized with mean dosages of atipamezole 0.05 mg/kg IM, naltrexone 0.2 mg/kg IM, and flumazenil 0.01 mg/kg IV. Times from antagonist administration to recovery milestones were extubation at 3.9 ± 1.5 min, control of head at 7.6 ± 2.5 min, sternal positioning at 8.8 ± 2.3 min, and standing at 12.1 ± 3.5 min. Animals were judged ready for reunification with conspecifics at 41.5 min (28-127 min), and reunification occurred at 62.1 ± 35.2 min. Paired arterial blood gas samples were obtained (n = 13). There was a significant decrease in temperature and blood pressure and increase in pO2, BEecf, and HCO3- (P < 0.05). Decreased respiratory rate with hypercapnia was occasionally observed. This protocol provided consistent anesthesia using a low dose α-2 agonist and permitted quick pack reunification.

Oral polio vaccine stockpile modeling: insights from recent experience.

BACKGROUND: Achieving polio eradication requires ensuring the delivery of sufficient supplies of the right vaccines to the right places at the right times. Despite large global markets, decades of use, and large quantity purchases of polio vaccines by national immunization programs and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), forecasting demand for the oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) stockpile remains challenging. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We review OPV stockpile experience compared to pre-2016 expectations, actual demand, and changes in GPEI policies related to the procurement and use of type 2 OPV vaccines. We use available population and immunization schedule data to explore polio vaccine market segmentation, and its role in polio vaccine demand forecasting. RESULTS: We find that substantial challenges remain in forecasting polio vaccine needs, mainly due to (1) deviations in implementation of plans that formed the basis for earlier forecasts, (2) lack of alignment of tactics/objectives among GPEI partners and other key stakeholders, (3) financing, and (4) uncertainty about development and licensure timelines for new polio vaccines and their field performance characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Mismatches between supply and demand over time have led to negative consequences associated with both oversupply and undersupply, as well as excess costs and potentially preventable cases.

Modeling poliovirus transmission and responses in New York State.

BACKGROUND: In July 2022, New York State (NYS) reported a case of paralytic polio in an unvaccinated young adult, and subsequent wastewater surveillance confirmed sustained local transmission of type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) in NYS with genetic linkage to the paralyzed patient. METHODS: We adapted an established poliovirus transmission and oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) evolution model to characterize dynamics of poliovirus transmission in NYS, including consideration of the immunization activities performed as part of the declared state of emergency. RESULTS: Despite sustained transmission of imported VDPV2 in NYS involving potentially thousands of individuals (depending on seasonality, population structure and mixing assumptions) in 2022, the expected number of additional paralytic cases in years 2023 and beyond is small (less than 0.5). However, continued transmission and/or reintroduction of poliovirus into NYS and other populations remains a possible risk in communities that do not achieve and maintain high immunization coverage. CONCLUSION: In countries such as the US that use only inactivated poliovirus vaccine, even with high average immunization coverage, imported polioviruses may circulate and pose a small but non-zero risk of causing paralysis in non-immune individuals.

Health Economic Analysis of Antiviral Drugs in the Global Polio Eradication Endgame.

BACKGROUND: Polio antiviral drugs (PAVDs) may provide a critical tool in the eradication endgame by stopping poliovirus infections in immunodeficient individuals who may not clear the virus without therapeutic intervention. Although prolonged/chronic poliovirus excreters are rare, they represent a source of poliovirus reintroduction into the general population. Prior studies that assumed the successful cessation of all oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) use estimated the potential upper bound of the incremental net benefits (INBs) of resource investments in research and development of PAVDs. However, delays in polio eradication, OPV cessation, and the development of PAVDs necessitate an updated economic analysis to reevaluate the costs and benefits of further investments in PAVDs. METHODS: Using a global integrated model of polio transmission, immunity, vaccine dynamics, risks, and economics, we explore the risks of reintroduction of polio transmission due to immunodeficiency-related vaccine-derived poliovirus (iVDPV) excreters and reevaluate the upper bound of the INBs of PAVDs. RESULTS: Under the current conditions, for which the use of OPV will likely continue for the foreseeable future, even with successful eradication of type 1 wild poliovirus by the end of 2023 and continued use of Sabin OPV for outbreak response, we estimate an upper bound INB of 60 million US$2019. With >100 million US$2019 already invested in PAVD development and with the introduction of novel OPVs that are less likely to revert to neurovirulence, our analysis suggests the expected INBs of PAVDs would not offset their costs. CONCLUSIONS: While PAVDs could play an important role in the polio endgame, their expected economic benefits drop with ongoing OPV use and poliovirus transmissions. However, stakeholders may pursue the development of PAVDs as a desired product regardless of their economic benefits.HighlightsWhile polio antiviral drugs could play an important role in the polio endgame, their expected economic benefits continue to drop with delays in polio eradication and the continued use of oral poliovirus vaccines.The incremental net benefits of investments in polio antiviral drug development and screening for immunodeficiency-related circulating polioviruses are small.Limited global resources are better spent on increasing global population immunity to polioviruses to stop and prevent poliovirus transmission.

Complexity of options related to restarting oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in national immunization programs after OPV cessation.

Background: The polio eradication endgame continues to increase in complexity.  With polio cases caused by wild poliovirus type 1 and circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses of all three types (1, 2 and 3) reported in 2022, the number, formulation, and use of poliovirus vaccines poses challenges for national immunization programs and vaccine suppliers.  Prior poliovirus transmission modeling of globally-coordinated type-specific cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) assumed creation of Sabin monovalent OPV (mOPV) stockpiles for emergencies and explored the potential need to restart OPV if the world reached a specified cumulative threshold number of cases after OPV cessation. Methods:  We document the actual experience of type 2 OPV (OPV2) cessation and reconsider prior modeling assumptions related to OPV restart.  We develop updated decision trees of national immunization options for poliovirus vaccines considering different possibilities for OPV restart. Results:  While OPV restart represented a hypothetical situation for risk management and contingency planning to support the 2013-2018 Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) Strategic Plan, the actual epidemiological experience since OPV2 cessation raises questions about what, if any, trigger(s) could lead to restarting the use of OPV2 in routine immunization and/or plans for potential future restart of type 1 and 3 OPV after their respective cessation.  The emergency use listing of a genetically stabilized novel type 2 OPV (nOPV2) and continued evaluation of nOPV for types 1 and/or 3 add further complexity by increasing the combinations of possible OPV formulations for OPV restart.  Conclusions: Expanding on a 2019 discussion of the logistical challenges and implications of restarting OPV, we find a complex structure of the many options and many issues related to OPV restart decisions and policies as of early 2023.  We anticipate many challenges for forecasting prospective vaccine supply needs during the polio endgame due to increasing potential combinations of poliovirus vaccine choices.

Subcutaneous and intramuscular administration of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine are similarly effective in generating a humoral response in domestic goats (Capra hircus).

OBJECTIVE: To determine severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) serum antibody titers in domestic goats after SC and IM administration of an experimental, veterinary SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. ANIMALS: 31 healthy adult domestic goats from 4 zoological institutions. METHODS: On day 0, blood was collected for baseline serum titer before vaccination with 1 mL SARS-CoV-2 recombinant S protein vaccine SC (n = 22) or IM (n = 9). A booster vaccination was administered 21 (SC group) or 28 days (IM group) after the initial vaccine and blood samples were collected at days 21 (SC group) or 28 (IM group), 42, 90, and 180 postvaccinations. The study took place between September 27, 2021, and June 01, 2022. Seroconversion for SARS-CoV-2 was assessed by a SARS-CoV-2 virus neutralization (VN) assay. RESULTS: Before vaccination, no goats had detectable antibodies. On day 42, 100% of goats had detectable serum titers. Serum titers peaked at day 42 for 94% of goats vaccinated by either route of administration. There was a significant difference between SC and IM groups regarding the proportion of goats with detectable titers on day 21/28 (68% vs 0%, respectively) and day 180 (50% vs 89%, respectively), relative to day 0. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The 2 vaccination protocols (SC 21 days apart and IM 28 days apart) were similarly effective in mounting serum antibody response in goats. The SC route of administration appeared to have a more rapid onset of immunity, while the IM route may have produced a longer duration of immunity. These data may be useful in determining appropriate SARS-CoV-2 vaccination schedules in ruminants.

Serial ultrasonographic measurements of fetal parameters over three successive pregnancies in a captive Eastern black-and-white colobus monkey (Colobus guereza).

This study provides ultrasonographic fetal growth charts for the Eastern black-and-white colobus monkey (Colobus guereza). Throughout three consecutive gestations (-162 to -2 days to parturition) in a single dam, we opportunistically obtained ultrasonographic measurements for the following parameters: biparietal diameter, head circumference, humerus length, femur length, tibia length, radius length, thoracic width, kidney length, and crown-rump length. Biparietal diameter was the most consistently measured parameter. First detection of fetuses occurred between 96 and 162 days before parturition. This report demonstrates that voluntary transabdominal ultrasound can be well-tolerated in the colobus monkey using operant conditioning. These findings may be useful to assess fetal development and predict parturition dates in the absence of a known conception date in this species.

Outbreak management strategies for cocirculation of multiple poliovirus types.

Prior modeling studies showed that current outbreak management strategies are unlikely to stop outbreaks caused by type 1 wild polioviruses (WPV1) or circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) in many areas, and suggested increased risks of outbreaks with cocirculation of more than one type of poliovirus. The surge of type 2 poliovirus transmission that began in 2019 and continues to date, in conjunction with decreases in preventive supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) for poliovirus types 1 and 3, has led to the emergence of several countries with cocirculation of more than one type of poliovirus. Response to these emerging cocirculation events is theoretically straightforward, but the different formulations, types, and inventories of oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs) available for outbreak response present challenging practical questions. In order to demonstrate the implications of using different vaccine options and outbreak campaign strategies, we applied a transmission model to a hypothetical population with conditions similar to populations currently experiencing outbreaks of cVDPVs of both types 1 and 2. Our results suggest prevention of the largest number of paralytic cases occurs when using (1) trivalent OPV (tOPV) (or coadministering OPV formulations for all three types) until one poliovirus outbreak type dies out, followed by (2) using a type-specific OPV until the remaining poliovirus outbreak type also dies out. Using tOPV first offers a lower overall expected cost, but this option may be limited by the willingness to expose populations to type 2 Sabin OPV strains. For strategies that use type 2 novel OPV (nOPV2) concurrently administered with bivalent OPV (bOPV, containing types 1 and 3 OPV) emerges as a leading option, but questions remain about feasibility, logistics, type-specific take rates, and coadministration costs.

Looking back at prospective modeling of outbreak response strategies for managing global type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV2) cessation.

Introduction: Detection of poliovirus transmission and ongoing oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) use continue to delay poliomyelitis eradication. In 2016, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated global cessation of type 2 OPV (OPV2) for preventive immunization and limited its use to emergency outbreak response. In 2019, GPEI partners requested restart of some Sabin OPV2 production and also accelerated the development of a genetically modified novel OPV2 vaccine (nOPV2) that promised greater genetic stability than monovalent Sabin OPV2 (mOPV2). Methods: We reviewed integrated risk, economic, and global poliovirus transmission modeling performed before OPV2 cessation, which recommended multiple risk management strategies to increase the chances of successfully ending all transmission of type 2 live polioviruses. Following OPV2 cessation, strategies implemented by countries and the GPEI deviated from model recommended risk management strategies. Complementing other modeling that explores prospective outbreak response options for improving outcomes for the current polio endgame trajectory, in this study we roll back the clock to 2017 and explore counterfactual trajectories that the polio endgame could have followed if GPEI had: (1) managed risks differently after OPV2 cessation and/or (2) developed nOPV2 before and used it exclusively for outbreak response after OPV2 cessation. Results: The implementation of the 2016 model-based recommended outbreak response strategies could have ended (and could still substantially improve the probability of ending) type 2 poliovirus transmission. Outbreak response performance observed since 2016 would not have been expected to achieve OPV2 cessation with high confidence, even with the availability of nOPV2 prior to the 2016 OPV2 cessation. Discussion: As implemented, the 2016 OPV2 cessation failed to stop type 2 transmission. While nOPV2 offers benefits of lower risk of seeding additional outbreaks, its reduced secondary spread relative to mOPV2 may imply relatively higher coverage needed for nOPV2 than mOPV2 to stop outbreaks.

DEGENERATIVE CARDIAC DISEASE IN TWO SPECIES OF TORTOISE (CHELONOIDIS NIGRA COMPLEX, CENTROCHELYS SULCATA).

Cardiac lesions in tortoises are incompletely described in the literature. This retrospective case series includes 11 cases of degenerative cardiac disease in young tortoises from two species in human care: Galápagos tortoise complex (Chelonoidis nigra complex) (n = 9) and sulcata tortoises (Centrochelys sulcata) (n = 2). Eight tortoises were male, two were female, and sex was undetermined for one individual. The age range at the time of death was 10-32 yr with a mean of 19 yr. The most common clinical signs noted prior to death were peripheral edema, lethargy, and inappetence. Common necropsy findings included generalized edema and pericardial effusion. All cases had ventricular myocardial fibrosis and several cases had epicardial adhesions. Additional common findings included hepatic lesions (hepatic lipidosis, hepatic fibrosis, and hepatitis) and pulmonary lesions (pulmonary edema, pulmonary fibrosis, and pneumocytic hypertrophy). A definitive cause for degenerative cardiac disease was not identified in this case series, but the young age distribution of the tortoises suggests that inappropriate environmental parameters, husbandry, and diet should be investigated as possible underlying contributing factors.

Polio eradication: Addressing the hurdles on the last mile.

1988, the World Health Assembly committed to eradicate poliomyelitis, a viral disease that can cause permanent paralysis. Today, only type 1 of the three wild poliovirus types remains circulating in limited geographic areas following widespread use of different poliovirus vaccines. While we are close to zero new cases of wild polio, it is a fragile situation, and there are many remaining and new hurdles to overcome. Here, experts discuss how to address them.

Modeling undetected live type 1 wild poliovirus circulation after apparent interruption of transmission: Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Since 2013, wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission occurred only for type 1 (WPV1). Following several years of increasing reported incidence (2017-2019) and programmatic disruptions caused by COVID-19 (early 2020), Pakistan and Afghanistan performed a large number of supplementary immunization activities (late 2020-2021). This increased intensity of immunization, following widespread transmission, substantially decreased WPV1 cases and positive environmental samples during 2021. Modeling the potential for undetected circulation of WPV1 after apparent interruption can support regional and global decisions about certification of the eradication of indigenous WPV1 transmission. We apply a stochastic model to estimate the confidence about no circulation (CNC) of WPV1 in Pakistan and Afghanistan as a function of time since the last reported case and/or positive environmental sample. Exploration of different assumptions about surveillance quality suggests a range for CNC for WPV1 as a function of time since the last positive surveillance signal, and supports the potential use of a time with no evidence of transmission of less than 3 years as sufficient to assume die out in the context of good acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance. We show high expected CNC based on AFP surveillance data alone, even with imperfect surveillance and some use of inactivated poliovirus vaccine masking the ability of AFP surveillance to detect transmission. Ensuring high quality AFP and environmental surveillance may substantially shorten the time required to reach high CNC. The time required for high CNC depends on whether immunization activities maintain high population immunity and the quality of surveillance data.